Predicting Diabetes in Canadian Adults Using Machine Learning

Rising diabetes rates have led to increased health-care costs and health complications. An estimated half of diabetes cases remain undiagnosed. Early and accurate diagnosis is crucial to mitigate disease progression and associated risks. This study addresses the challenge of predicting diabetes prevalence in Canadian adults by employing machine learning (ML) techniques to primary care data. We leveraged the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN), Canada’s premier multi-disease electronic medical record surveillance system, and developed and tuned seven ML classification models to predict the likelihood of diabetes. The models were tested and validated, focusing on clinical patient characteristics influential in predicting diabetes. We found XGBoost performed best out of all the models, with an AUC of 92%. The most important features contributing to model prediction were HbA1c, LDL, and hypertension medication. Our research aims to aid healthcare professionals in early diagnosis and to identify key characteristics for targeted interventions. This study contributes to an understanding of how ML can enhance public health planning and reduce healthcare system burdens. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This study did not receive any funding ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes All data used are available online at website upon reasonable request.