Carthago Delenda Est: Co-opetitive Indirect Information Diffusion Model for Influence Operations on Online Social Media

For a state or non-state actor whose credibility is bankrupt, relying on bots to conduct non-attributable, non-accountable, and seemingly-grassroots-but-decentralized-in-actuality influence/information operations (info ops) on social media can help circumvent the issue of trust deficit while advancing its interests. Planning and/or defending against decentralized info ops can be aided by computational simulations in lieu of ethically-fraught live experiments on social media. In this study, we introduce Diluvsion, an agent-based model for contested information propagation efforts on Twitter-like social media. The model emphasizes a user's belief in an opinion (stance) being impacted by the perception of potentially illusory popular support from constant incoming floods of indirect information, floods that can be cooperatively engineered in an uncoordinated manner by bots as they compete to spread their stances. Our model, which has been validated against real-world data, is an advancement over previous models because we account for engagement metrics in influencing stance adoption, non-social tie spreading of information, neutrality as a stance that can be spread, and themes that are analogous to media's framing effect and are symbiotic with respect to stance propagation. The strengths of the Diluvsion model are demonstrated in simulations of orthodox info ops, e.g., maximizing adoption of one stance; creating echo chambers; inducing polarization; and unorthodox info ops, e.g., simultaneous support of multiple stances as a Trojan horse tactic for the dissemination of a theme.