Valid Indicators for Predicting Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults Under Ongoing Exercise Intervention to Prevent Care Requirement

Physical exercise interventions to prevent falls for older adults at risk of falling are widespread in many countries; however, there is insufficient knowledge of the impact of long-term exercise on the fall discriminating ability of existing fall-prediction indicators. This study measured physical and cognitive indicators of the fall risk, including the timed up and go (TUG), walking speed (WS), and plantar tactile threshold (PTT), in 124 community-dwelling older adults with care needs who were continuing an exercise program. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine factors associated with falls in the 87 participants who could adhere to the exercise continuously for 12 months. The PTT was significantly higher in fallers, while the TUG and WS did not differ significantly between fallers and non-fallers. The only index significantly associated with falls was the PTT (OR = 1.20). The fall identification ability was better for PTT (AUC = 0.63), whereas TUG (AUC = 0.57) and WS (AUC = 0.52) were lower than previously reported scores. In conclusion, long-term exercise was found to improve scores on the fallprediction indicators by physical performance, but to decrease their ability to identify future falls. PTT may complement the ability to identify falls in such elderly populations.