The Impact of Four Smoking Metrics on Survival After Diagnosis with HPV plus Oropharyngeal Cancer

Objective While tobacco use is understood to negatively impact HPV+ oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) outcomes, debate remains as to how this impact differs between cohorts. Multiple smoking metrics have been identified as having the greatest prognostic significance, and some recent works have found smoking to have no significant impact. Herein, we show through an analysis of four common smoking metrics that while smoking impacts overall survival (OS), it has a limited impact on recurrence-free survival (RFS) in our cohort. Methods We conducted a retrospective review of patients treated for HPV+ OPSCC in our health system from 2012 to 2019. Patients with metastatic disease or concurrent second primaries were excluded. Four metrics of tobacco use were assessed: current/former/never smokers, ever/never smokers, and smokers with >10 or >20 pack-year (PY) smoking histories. Our main outcomes were 3-year RFS and OS. Results Three hundred and sixty-seven patients met inclusion criteria. 37.3% of patients (137/367) were never-smokers; 13.8% of patients (51/367) were currently smoking at diagnosis and 48.8% of patients (179/367) were former smokers. No tobacco-use metric significantly impacted 3-year RFS. On univariate analysis, all smoking metrics yielded inferior OS. On multivariate analysis, current and ever smoking status significantly impacted 3-year OS. Conclusion The impact of tobacco use on HPV+ OPSCC outcomes is not universal, but may instead be modulated by other cohort-specific factors. The impact of smoking may decrease as rates of tobacco use decline.