Assessing the Potential Consumption and Cost Benefits of Next-Generation Technologies for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles: A Vehicle-Level Perspective

This paper aims to quantify the potential benefits of advanced transportation technologies for medium- and heavyduty vehicles, based on technologies expected to be integrated over the next few decades. The analysis involved simulations of over 20 truck types, ranging from Class 2 to Class 8, and provides fuel consumption, estimated purchase price, and total cost of ownership for trucks equipped with advanced technologies, namely mild hybrid, full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell powertrains. The energy consumption and technoeconomic analysis were done using the Autonomie and TechScape tools developed at Argonne National Laboratory. This study extends new technology projections from 2025 to 2050, and the results demonstrate that while they can improve the costeffectiveness and fuel economy of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, they will be necessary to make battery-electric and fuelcell powered electric trucks economically attractive compared with conventional diesel powertrains. This study provides vehiclelevel perspective and estimated projections about the future of advanced medium- and heavy-duty truck technologies that can inform other advanced transportation studies, as well as support decision-makers with setting decarbonization targets and strategies.