Clinical Impact of Contouring Variability for Prostate Cancer Tumor Boost

Purpose The focal radiation therapy (RT) boost technique was shown in a phase III randomized controlled trial (RCT) to improve prostate cancer outcomes without increasing toxicity. This technique relies on the accurate delineation of prostate tumors on MRI. A recent prospective study evaluated radiation oncologists’ accuracy when asked to delineate prostate tumors on MRI and demonstrated high variability in tumor contours. We sought to evaluate the impact of contour variability and inaccuracy on predicted clinical outcomes. We hypothesized that radiation oncologists’ contour inaccuracies would yield meaningfully worse clinical outcomes. Methods and Materials Forty-five radiation oncologists and 2 expert radiologists contoured prostate tumors on 30 patient cases. Of these cases, those with CT simulation or diagnostic CT available were selected for analysis. A knowledge-based planning model was developed to generate focal RT boost plans for each contour per the RCT protocol. The probability of biochemical failure (BF) was determined using a model from the RCT. The primary metric evaluated was delta BF (DBF = Participant BF – Expert BF). An absolute increase in BF ≥5% was considered clinically meaningful. Results Eight patient cases and 394 target volumes for focal RT boost planning were included in this analysis. In general, participant plans were associated with worse predicted clinical outcomes compared to the expert plan, with an average absolute increase in BF of 4.3%. Of participant plans, 37% were noted to have an absolute increase in BF of 5% or more. Conclusions Radiation oncologists’ attempts to contour tumor targets for focal RT boost are frequently inaccurate enough to yield meaningfully inferior clinical outcomes for patients.