A novel approach to accurately measuring the burden of hospitalisations for cardiovascular disease in people with diabetes: A pilot study

Aim: To determine the reliability of hospital discharge codes for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke compared with adjudicated diagnosis, and to pilot a scalable approach to adjudicate records on a population-based sample. Methods: A population-based sample of 685 people with diabetes admitted (1274 admissions) to one of three Australian hospitals during 2018-2020 were randomly selected for this study. All medical records were reviewed and adjudicated. Results: Cardiovascular diseases were the most common primary reason for hospitalisation in people with diabetes, accounting for similar to 17% (215/1274) of all hospitalisations, with HF as the leading cause. ICD-10 codes substantially underestimated HF prevalence and had the lowest agreement with the adjudicated diagnosis of HF (Kappa = 0.81), compared with AMI and stroke (Kappa >= 0.91). While ICD-10 codes provided suboptimal sensitivity (72%) for HF, the performance was better for AMI (sensitivity 84%; specificity 100%) and stroke (sensitivity 85%; specificity 100%). A novel approach to screen possible HF cases only required adjudicating 8% (105/1274) of records, correctly identified 78/81 of HF admissions and yielded 96% sensitivity and 98% specificity. Conclusions: While ICD-10 codes appear reliable for AMI or stroke, a more complex diagnosis such as HF benefits from a two-stage process to screen for suspected HF cases that need adjudicating. The next step is to validate this novel approach on large multi-centre studies in diabetes.