Controlling Phosphorus Transport in Poyang Lake Basin under the Constraints of Climate Change and Crop Yield Increase

Phosphorus, as a key nutrient, plays an essential role in both algal growth in surface waters and crop development on land. Its presence in inorganic fertilizers is crucial for maximizing crop yields. However, an excessive accumulation of phosphorus in soils can lead to its loss and exacerbate eutrophication in water bodies. This study highlights the complex interplay among phosphorus management, agricultural productivity, and environmental health, particularly in the context of climate change's influence on sediment transport and water pollution. We focus on the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) and use a sophisticated process-based phosphorus model to forecast phosphorus load trends from 2020 to 2049. Our predictions indicate a significant increase in the total phosphorus load of the PLB due to the impact of climate change. To address these challenges, we explore a novel strategy combining organic and inorganic phosphorus fertilizers. This approach aims to improve crop yields while reducing non-point source phosphorus pollution through adjusted anthropogenic inputs. Our findings reveal that a synergistic application of these fertilizers, coupled with a controlled use of inorganic phosphate, can reduce its usage by more than 2.5% annually. This method not only contributes to a 2.2% average annual increase in livestock and poultry production but also promotes a 0.6% yearly growth in grain output. Consequently, it effectively diminishes non-point source phosphorus pollution, offering a sustainable solution to the dual challenge of enhancing agricultural productivity and protecting environmental health.