Probabilistic analysis of tunnel face seismic stability in layered rock masses using polynomial Chaos Kriging metamodel

Face stability is an essential issue in tunnel design and construction. Layered rock masses are typical and ubiquitous; uncertainties in rock properties always exist. In view of this, a comprehensive method, which combines the Upper bound Limit analysis of Tunnel face stability, the Polynomial Chaos Kriging, the Monte-Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Covariance method (ULT-PCK-MA), is proposed to investigate the seismic stability of tunnel faces. A two-dimensional analytical model of ULT is developed to evaluate the virtual support force based on the upper bound limit analysis. An efficient probabilistic analysis method PCK-MA based on the adaptive Polynomial Chaos Kriging metamodel is then implemented to investigate the parameter uncertainty effects. Ten input parameters, including geological strength indices, uniaxial compressive strengths and constants for three rock formations, and the horizontal seismic coefficients, are treated as random variables. The effects of these parameter uncertainties on the failure probability and sensitivity indices are discussed. In addition, the effects of weak layer position, the middle layer thickness and quality, the tunnel diameter, the parameters correlation, and the seismic loadings are investigated, respectively. The results show that the layer distributions significantly influence the tunnel face probabilistic stability, particularly when the weak rock is present in the bottom layer. The efficiency of the proposed ULT-PCK-MA is validated, which is expected to facilitate the engineering design and construction.