Average daily glucocorticoid dose, number of prescription days, and cumulative dose in the initial 90 days of glucocorticoid therapy are associated with subsequent hip and clinical vertebral fracture risk: a retrospective cohort study using a nationwide health insurance claims database in Japan

Purpose Fracture risk assessment is recommended at three months after glucocorticoid (GC) therapy initiation. This study aimed to assess whether GC exposure in the initial 90 days of GC therapy is associated with subsequent hip and clinical vertebral fracture risk using the nationwide health insurance claims database of Japan (NDBJ). Methods Patients aged ≥ 50 years who were prescribed GC (≥ 70 mg prednisolone or equivalent; PSL) in the initial 90 days of GC therapy and were followed for hip and clinical vertebral fracture incidences for the subsequent 1080 days were selected from NDBJ. Associations of GC exposure with hip or clinical vertebral fracture risk were evaluated by Cox regression analysis adjusted for potential confounders. Results We selected 316,396 women and 299,871 men for the GC-exposed group and 43,164 women and 33,702 men for the reference group. Higher GC doses and longer prescription days in the initial 90 days of GC therapy were significantly and dose-dependently associated with increased fracture risk relative to the reference group. Patients receiving GC ≥ 5 mg PSL/day had a significantly increased fracture risk in the stratum of 30–59 days of GC prescription. In addition, female patients who received GC (≥ 1 and < 2.5 mg PSL/day) for 90 days in the initial 90 days of GC therapy had a significantly increased fracture risk. Conclusions GC exposure in the initial 90 days of GC therapy was dose-dependently associated with hip and clinical vertebral fracture risk. GC may increase fracture risk with lower doses for shorter durations than previously reported. Summary Fracture risk assessment three months after glucocorticoid (GC) therapy initiation is recommended. We found that GC exposure in the initial 90 days of GC therapy at lower daily doses for shorter durations than previously reported were significantly and dose-dependently associated with fracture risk using a nationwide health insurance claims database.