Spatial and temporal variation in the predicted dispersal of marine larvae around coastal Aotearoa New Zealand

Introduction Patterns of larval dispersal in the marine environment have many implications for population dynamics, biodiversity, fisheries, ecosystem function, and the effectiveness of marine protected areas. There is tremendous variation in factors that influence the direction and success of marine larval dispersal, making accurate prediction exceedingly difficult. The key physical factor is the pattern of water movement, while two key biological factors are the amount of time larvae spend drifting in the ocean (pelagic larval duration - PLD) and the time of the year at which adult populations release larvae. Here, we assess the role of these factors in the variation of predicted larval dispersal and settlement patterns from 15 locations around Aotearoa New Zealand.Methods The Moana Project Backbone circulation model paired with OpenDrift was used to simulate Lagrangian larval dispersal in the ocean with basic vertical control across four differing PLD groups (7, 14, 30, and 70 days) for each of twelve months.Results Considerable variation was observed in the pattern of particle dispersal for each major variable: release location, PLD group, and the month of release. As expected, dispersal distances increased with PLD length, but the size of this effect differed across both release location and month. Increased and directional particle dispersal matched some expectations from well-known currents, but surprisingly high self-recruitment levels were recorded in some locations.Discussion These predictions of larval dispersal provide, for the first time, an empirical overview of coastal larval dispersal around Aoteaora New Zealand's main islands and highlight potential locations of "barriers" to dispersal. This dataset should prove valuable in helping predict larval connectivity across a broad range of species in this environment for diverse purposes.