Estimating a prediction model and studying the causes of the rise in divorce rates in the Ha'il region using time series and saturated design

Abstract Introduction. The phenomenon of divorce is a social phenomenon because it is related to the most important social institution in society, has a profound impact on the life of the family and children, and the processes of upbringing, education, and social education. Objective.The goals of this study are to determine the actual causes of the divorce crisis using a saturated design and to predict the number of divorces in Saudi Arabia using the ARIMA model. Methods and Materials. The method is done by building several models by creating questionnaires and then analyzing them statistically based on saturated design. Also, the data were obtained from statistics record, time-series analysis was performed. Results. We discover that the following factors contributed to the divorce crisis in the Ha'il region: E11 (Cultural openness), E4 (Poor parental choice, far from taking the young man or girl's opinion), E14 (Comparing married life with the life of others), E1 (The lack of religious scruples in the husband or wife), E6 (Addiction), E3 (Excessive jealousy, reaching the stage of doubt and arbitrary interpretations), and E2 (Violence and spousal control). Furthermore, the model's prediction performance is deemed reasonable, and the prediction results are deemed reliable. Conclusion. Divorce in Saudi Arabia is expected to rise from 2020 to 2030, implying an increase over time. According to the study, the ARIMA model predicts that the year 2030 will be 67808.61.