Soil evolution following the shrinking of Burdur Lake in Türkiye

The area of Burdur Lake gradually decreased from 211 to 122 km2 between 1975 and 2021. In this study, we explored the effects of time, environmental factors, and land uses on the spatial distribution of soil chemical properties (SOC, CaCO3, EC, and pH). In total 240 soil samples were taken (0–20 cm depth) at a 400 × 400 m grid sampling in the former lakebed, pasture, and agricultural fields representing a chronosequence. We found a considerable temporal and topographic trend in SOC, CaCO3, EC, pH, and vegetation density. The SOC, EC, and pH were higher in younger soils. Land use significantly affected soil properties. Natural vegetation species mainly grew in the pasture but only sparsely in the former lakebed areas. Salt-affected and alkaline soils and exposure time affected the density and spatial distribution of vegetation in the former lakebed and pasture areas. We tested different models to spatially predict soil properties and found that random forest had higher prediction accuracy for SOC (r2 = 0.50) and CaCO3 (r2 = 0.36), whereas the cubist model had higher prediction accuracy for EC (r2 = 0.60) and pH (r2 = 0.38). We conclude that the vegetation density and distribution of SOC, CaCO3, EC, and pH were controlled by topography, time, and land use. The time and space-for-time substitution approach can be used to study soil chronosequence and biosequence in areas with shrinking lakes.