Soil buffering capacity enhances maize yield resilience amidst climate perturbations

CONTEXT: Maize production in China is facing a multitude of challenges such as climate change, increasing demand, and limited cropland availability. Soil properties, beyond supporting crop growth and development, can play a critical role in buffering the impacts of climate crisis on crop yields. However, little information is known about such buffering capacities and their spatial distributions of soil properties in buffering the impacts of climate perturbations on maize yields in China's maize belt (CMB). OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to identify the responses of different regions within the CMB to climate perturbations in terms of maize yields, as well as their spatial differences and magnitudes. Additionally, we aimed to quantify the capacities of soil properties in buffering the impacts of climate perturbations. METHODS: We quantified the impacts of climate perturbations (climate fluctuations deviating from the mean state) on maize yields using the APSIM across the China's maize belt. We then used the random forest model to interpret the buffering effects of typical soil properties to the adverse impacts of climate perturbations. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our results reveal that temperature variability was the predominant climatic perturbation affecting maize yields, with rising temperature leading to significant yield losses in most regions. Perturbations in solar radiation and precipitation exhibited relatively stronger positive yield impacts only in areas with inadequate solar radiation and dry conditions, respectively. Notably, soil properties explained -40% to -70% of the spatial variations for the impacts of climate perturbations. Soils with high soil organic carbon content (SOC) can significantly reduce the negative impacts of temperature increase, highlighting the crucial buffering effect of SOC in response to global warming. Soil texture, field capacity and bulk density were also critical soil buffering properties for interpreting the spatial patterns of the impacts of climate perturbations. SIGNIFICANCE: Our results underscore the importance of soil quality improvement to ensure stable food production, which is an effective strategy for enhancing agricultural system resilience amidst future climate crises.