Sociability Alcohol Expectancies Shape Predictions of Drinking Behavior and Anxiety in a Novel Affective Forecasting Task

Background: Existing work proposes that people with higher social anxiety symptoms and sociability alcohol expectancies believe alcohol can lower their anxiety. However, studies have primarily analyzed retrospective reports, not anticipatory motives. Since predictions of future emotion (i.e., affective forecasts) strongly influence behavior, it is critical to understand how people predict alcohol will influence their anxiety. Additionally, intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is related to the use of alcohol as a coping tool, but there is a dearth of work testing whether IU influences alcohol-related forecasts. Objectives: Utilizing a novel affective forecasting task, we tested the prediction that social anxiety symptoms, sociability alcohol expectancies, and IU would relate to predictions about alcohol use. In an initial study and preregistered replication, participants imagined themselves in stressful social scenarios and forecasted how anxious they would feel when drinking and when sober. In the replication, participants also forecasted whether they would drink in the imagined scenarios. Results: Contrary to hypotheses, social anxiety symptoms and IU did not significantly predict higher forecasted anxiety across studies, nor did they predict forecasted drinking. Exploratory analyses showed that participants with higher sociability alcohol expectancies forecasted being more likely to drink, and forecasted feeling less anxious when drinking (versus being sober). Even after statistically controlling for social anxiety, the effect of sociability expectancies remained significant in predicting forecasted anxiety and forecasted drinking. Conclusions: Clinicians could consider specifically targeting sociability expectancies for alcohol use difficulties, and future research should continue utilizing affective forecasting paradigms to test links between social anxiety, alcohol expectancies, and alcohol-use problems.