Navigating offshore aquaculture: Efficient strategies for policymakers in transition

Coastal aquaculture faces significant environmental challenges, prompting consideration of relocating mariculture activities further offshore, termed offshore aquaculture (OA). However, the associated risks and costs have impeded the OA's growth, underscoring the need for sound policy direction. Utilizing game models, we evaluate the advantages of various policy strategies and explore the complex dynamics between stakeholders, which enhances policymakers' decision-making abilities regarding the OA's evolution. Data-driven insights reveal that: 1) A lack of policy intervention in the OA can lead to fierce market competition and unequal resource distribution, adversely affecting societal prosperity. 2) Policies centered around direct government investment in OA system or subsidizing enterprise-led initiatives can paradoxically compromise both societal welfare and the OA's sustainable growth. 3) Our analysis shows that subsidizing OA product production and consumption effectively mitigates the constraints observed in the previously mentioned policies, promoting societal welfare, and expanding the OA sector. Additionally, this approach stimulates the maximum enterprise investment in OA system, even if other policies might seem more directly supportive. 4) Policy enactment often witnesses erratic strategies from decision-makers. Within this spectrum, OA enterprises are highly susceptible to strategic chaos, with government missteps having the gravest repercussions on market equilibrium. In summary, this paper examines the theoretical advantages and challenges of various policies, coupled with paying attention to the intricate interactions and potential chaos phenomena of decision-makers in different scenarios. These findings are then used to offer corresponding policy insights, thereby empowering policymakers to better guide OA development.