Retrospective case–control study examining the relationship between recurrence-free survival and changes in pre- and post-radioiodine therapy serum thyroglobulin levels in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer

Purpose Thyroglobulin assay is important to assess the residual or recurrence of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Patients with positive serum thyroglobulin levels after radioactive iodine (RAI) adjuvant therapy could achieve long-term recurrence-free survival (RFS). The patient’s prognosis could not be confidently estimated based solely on the evaluation of thyroglobulin levels. We investigated the recurrence rate and RFS of patients who received adjuvant RAI therapy after surgery for DTC to clarify the relationship between changes in pre- and post-therapy serum thyroglobulin levels and RFS. Materials and methods Patients who underwent adjuvant RAI therapy between May 2007 and March 2021 were included in this study, whereas those with positive anti-thyroglobulin antibodies, distant metastases, or gross residual tumors were excluded. The change in pre- and post-treatment serum thyroglobulin levels under thyroid-stimulating hormone stimulation was calculated and classified as follows: group A, thyroglobulin levels decreased by ˃10%; group B, thyroglobulin levels within a range of 10% or less; and group C, thyroglobulin levels increased by ˃10%. RFS outcomes were analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate analysis was performed using the log-rank test, and multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Results A total of 74 patients were included. Relapse was seen in 13 of 46 patients in group A, 9 of 15 in group B, and 10 of 13 in group C. Median RFS was 129.00 (95% confidence interval CI 77.79–180.21), 113.00 (95% CI 86.83–139.17), and 33 months (95% CI 6.026–59.974) in groups A, B, and C, respectively. Patients in group C exhibited significantly shorter RFS than those in groups A and B ( P = 0.001). Conclusions Changes in thyroglobulin levels pre- and post-therapy were associated with RFS. Patients with decreased post-therapy thyroglobulin levels had a favorable prognosis, even if their thyroglobulin levels were positive after RAI therapy.