Examining the long-term reduction in commuting emissions from working from home

To develop effective climate strategies, it is necessary to model the long-term impacts of combined policy measures. This study examines how an increase in working-from-home (WFH) practices, coupled with higher private car fleet penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), could change commuting patterns and associated emissions. Simulations for the Dublin Region show that if half of white-collar workers were WFH and EVs made up one-third of the fleet as forecasted for 2030, emissions from travel activities could be reduced by up to 35% for carbon dioxide (CO2) and 25% for particulate matter (PM). However, transitioning from a moderate to a high WFH scenario may not deliver significant benefits in terms of travel length, modal shift, and emissions reduction. In addition, a decrease in commuter trips can lead to an increase in other trips. This suggests that there is a need for additional measures to discourage car usage when commuter trips decline.