A new prognostic model in chemotherapy-treated patients with recurrent or metastatic head and neck cancer: An analysis of ECOG-ACRIN E1305

Introduction: For patients with recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC) periodic reassessment of prognostic factors provides valuable information that can aid in patient stratification. Patients and methods: This post hoc analysis included all patients with R/M HNSCC enrolled in the ECOG-ACRIN E1305 phase III clinical trial who received first-line treatment with platinum-containing chemotherapy doublet with or without bevacizumab. Overall survival (OS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Prognostic factors for OS were identified using univariate and multivariable analyses. A new prognostic model for OS was built retaining the prognostic factors which were significant in the final multivariable analysis (P < 0.05). Results: All 403 study participants were included in the analysis. The median OS in the whole study cohort was 11.8 months (90% confidence intervals [CI], 10.6-13.2). The new prognostic model for OS comprised four risk factors (ECOG performance status [1 versus 0], primary tumor location [other versus oropharynx], presence of bone or liver metastasis, and prior radiation to the head and neck); patients with <= 2 (n = 249) and > 2 risk factors (n = 154) had a median OS of 15.2 and 7.6 months, respectively (Hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.73-2.66; P < 0.0001). Conclusions: The new proposed model includes 4 clinical prognostic factors that can be readily assessed at baseline. Similar models have the potential to improve trial design and optimize stratification of patients with R/ M HNSCC.