Scaling Laws And Statistical Properties of The Transaction Flows And Holding Times of Bitcoin
arxiv(2024)
摘要
We study the temporal evolution of the holding-time distribution of bitcoins
and find that the average distribution of holding-time is a heavy-tailed power
law extending from one day to over at least 200 weeks with an exponent
approximately equal to 0.9, indicating very long memory effects. We also
report significant sample-to-sample variations of the distribution of holding
times, which can be best characterized as multiscaling, with power-law
exponents varying between 0.3 and 2.5 depending on bitcoin price regimes.
We document significant differences between the distributions of book-to-market
and of realized returns, showing that traders obtain far from optimal
performance. We also report strong direct qualitative and quantitative evidence
of the disposition effect in the Bitcoin Blockchain data. Defining
age-dependent transaction flows as the fraction of bitcoins that are traded at
a given time and that were born (last traded) at some specific earlier time, we
document that the time-averaged transaction flow fraction has a power law
dependence as a function of age, with an exponent close to -1.5, a value
compatible with priority queuing theory. We document the existence of
multifractality on the measure defined as the normalized number of bitcoins
exchanged at a given time.
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