Time-lagged Effects of the Spring Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau on Summer Precipitation in Northeast China during 1961–2020: Role of Soil Moisture

The spring atmospheric heat source (AHS) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been suggested to affect the Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation over South China. However, its influence on the summer precipitation in Northeast China (NEC) remains unknown. The connection between spring TP AHS and subsequent summer precipitation over NEC from 1961 to 2020 is analyzed in this study. Results illustrate that stronger spring TP AHS can enhance subsequent summer NEC precipitation, and higher soil moisture in the Yellow River Valley–North China region (YRVNC) acts as a bridge. During spring, the strong TP AHS could strengthen the transportation of water vapor to East China and lead to excessive rainfall in the YRVNC. Thus, soil moisture increases, which regulates local thermal conditions by decreasing local surface skin temperature and sensible heat. Owing to the memory of soil moisture, the lower spring sensible heat over the YRVNC can last until mid-summer, decrease the land–sea thermal contrast, and weaken the southerly winds over the East Asia–western Pacific region and convective activities over the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific. This modulates the East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern, which leads to a cyclonic anomaly and excessive summer precipitation over NEC.