Joint estimation of paternity, sibships and pollen dispersal in a snapdragon hybrid zone

The distribution of pollen dispersal distances sets the scale for plant population dynamics. A useful approach for inferring the distribution dispersal distances is to infer the distances between mates by paternity or parentage reconstruction. This is most powerful when information about multiple properties or data types are inferred in a joint analysis. We describe an approach to jointly infer paternity, sibling relationships and population parameters, with the example of the pollen dispersal kernel in a natural population of the yellow-flowered Antirrhinum majus striatum and the magenta-flowered A. m. pseudomajus. Pollen dispersal is leptokurtic, with half of mating events occurring within 30m, but with a long tail of mating events up to 747m. We also find tentative evidence that fathers tend to be to the East of mothers, indicating that there is a bias in pollen dispersal from A. m. pseudomajus into A. m. striatum. The scale of pollen dispersal is large enough that pollinators should encounter the full range of hybrid phenotypes in the hybrid zone, and would be sufficient for any pollinator-mediated selection to influence male or female fitness. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.