Observed and projected trends of rainfall and temperature in the Central Ethiopia

Climate change has been designated the most serious environmental challenge of the twenty-first century, and it will remain so in the future. To adapt to the ill effects of climate change and variability, location-specific climate analysis is essential to provide actionable evidence for informed decision making. The goal of this research was to evaluate current and future rainfall and temperature trends in central Ethiopia. We took 33 (1986–2018) years of daily rainfall and temperature data from ten stations from the National Meteorological Services Agency. The Markov chain model was used to fill in the missing values. Trends of climate variables and their extremes were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test. The results showed that rainfall exhibited significant increasing trends ( p < 0.05) at 80% of the stations included in the study. The start of the Kiremit season varied from June (Jun 4 at Bako) to July (Jul 1 at Shashemane) among stations; it starts June 4, June 6, and June 24 at Bako, Ambo, and Melkassa. For Asgori, the cessation date was October 1, and for Ambo, it was October 17. The average growing season varies from 95 to 136 days, and we found the shortest and longest growing seasons at Melkassa (95 days) and Ambo (136 days). The Sen’s slope results showed that rainfall increased in most of the study sites from 0.2* to 12.44*, whereas it decreased from − 0.12* to − 0.21*. This has implications for agricultural practices and crop and variety choices for major crops grown in the area. To solve this problem, policymakers must work on creating awareness for the local community, which can help them withstand future climate change.