Factors and a model to predict three-month mortality in patients with acute fatty liver of pregnancy from two medical centers

Background Acute fatty liver of pregnancy (AFLP) is an uncommon but potentially life-threatening complication. Lacking of prognostic factors and models renders prediction of outcomes difficult. This study aims to explore factors and develop a prognostic model to predict three-month mortality of AFLP. Methods This retrospective study included 78 consecutive patients fulfilling both clinical and laboratory criteria and Swansea criteria for diagnosis of AFLP. Univariate and multivariate cox regression analyses were used to identify predictive factors of mortality. Predictive efficacy of prognostic index for AFLP (PI-AFLP) was compared with the other four liver disease models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results AFLP-related three-month mortality of two medical centers was 14.10% (11/78). International normalised ratio (INR, hazard ratio [HR] = 3.446; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.324–8.970), total bilirubin (TBIL, HR = 1.005; 95% CI, 1.000-1.010), creatine (Scr, HR = 1.007; 95% CI, 1.001–1.013), low platelet (PLT, HR = 0.964; 95% CI, 0.931–0.997) at 72 h postpartum were confirmed as significant predictors of mortality. Artificial liver support (ALS, HR = 0.123; 95% CI, 0.012–1.254) was confirmed as an effective measure to improve severe patients’ prognosis. Predictive accuracy of PI-AFLP was 0.874. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of liver disease models for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD) and pregnancy-specific liver disease (PSLD) were 0.781, 0.774, 0.744 and 0.643, respectively. Conclusion TBIL, INR, Scr and PLT at 72 h postpartum are significant predictors of three-month mortality in AFLP patients. ALS is an effective measure to improve severe patients’ prognosis. PI-AFLP calculated by TBIL, INR, Scr, PLT and ALS was a sensitive and specific model to predict mortality of AFLP.