Increasing impacts of China's oil and gas demands on global CH₄ emissions

The energy sector stands out as a main contributor to increasing global methane (CH4) emissions. Given China's heavy dependence on energy imports, a closer examination of its oil and gas-related CH4 emissions becomes imperative. This study conducts an in-depth analysis of China's contribution to global CH4 emissions stemming from its consumption of crude oil and natural gas since 2000. The results indicate that CH4 emissions from crude oil and natural gas imports rose from 614 Gg in 2000 to 7692 Gg in 2019. When considering domestic production, the demand-induced CH4 emissions in 2019 increased to approximately 10754 Gg (equivalent to 320 Mt CO2-eq and 887 Mt CO2-eq based on global warming potential (GWP) values at the 100-year and 20-year time period), of which 72 % were related to crude oil and natural gas imports. The primary contributor to this increase in CH4 emissions was the expansion of the trade scale. The growth trend of crude oil imports-induced CH4 emissions was also positively influenced by emission intensity and trade structure, but these two drivers had a negative impact on the growth of natural gas imports-induced CH4 emissions. The virtual transfer of CH4 emissions via international oil and gas trade requires urgent policy attention. In collaboration with its trading partners, China should take aggressive actions to achieve meaningful mitigation in CH4 emissions associated with the oil and gas trade.