Mechanism analysis of vegetation phenology in an urban agglomeration in an arid zone driven by seasonal land surface temperatures

In arid areas, vegetation is the habitat that sustains the life and survival of species, and it also plays a vital role in soil erosion prevention. This paper investigates the spatial aggregation patterns and trends of vegetation phenology (VP) and land surface temperature (LST) from 2002 to 2021. Additionally, the spatial Durbin model was used to analyze seasonal elements such as air temperature, evaporation, LST, precipitation, soil moisture, aerosol optical depth, and the impact of DEM on VP. Finally, explore the relationship between seasonal LST and urbanization and VP. The results show that in arid areas, the vegetation start of season time (SOS) showed an advancing trend, the vegetation end of season time (EOS) and length of season time (LOS) showed an extending trend, and the vegetation time of middle of season (MOS) tended to be stable. VP changes in oasis areas fluctuated significantly, while VP varies in non-oasis regions were stable. Under the scenario of spatial heterogeneity, LST is the most influential factor in VP. Spring LST has the greatest impact on SOS, winter LST on EOS and LOS. Urbanization advances SOS and extends EOS but has less impact on LOS. This study's results are essential for understanding the complex mechanism of VP changes in oases in arid regions and analyzing the distribution characteristics of VP under urbanization levels.