Variations in Incidence and Prognosis of Stage 4 CKD Among Adults Identified Using Different Algorithms: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE:Clinical guidelines define chronic kidney disease (CKD) as abnormalities of kidney structure or function for>3 months. Assessment of the duration criterion may be implemented in different ways, potentially impacting estimates of disease incidence or prevalence in the population, individual diagnosis, and treatment decisions, especially for more severe cases. We investigated differences in incidence and prognosis of CKD stage G4 identified by 1 of 4 algorithms. STUDY DESIGN:Population-based cohort study in Alberta, Canada. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS:Residents>18 years old with incident CKD stage G4 (eGFR 15-29mL/min/1.73m2) diagnosed between April 1, 2015, and March 31, 2018, based on administrative and laboratory data. EXPOSURE:Four outpatient eGFR-based algorithms, increasing in stringency, for defining cohorts with CKD G4 were evaluated: (1) a single test, (2) first eGFR<30mL/min/1.73m2 and a second eGFR 15-29mL/min/1.73m2 measured>90 days apart (2 tests), (3) ≥2 eGFR measurements of<30mL/min/1.73m2 sustained for>90 days (qualifying period) and the last eGFR in the qualifying period of 15-29mL/min/1.73m2 (relaxed sustained), and (4) ≥2 consecutive measurements of 15-29mL/min/1.73m2 for>90 days (rigorous sustained). OUTCOME:Time to the earliest of death, eGFR improvement (a sustained increase in eGFR to≥30mL/min/1.73m2 for>90 days and>25% increase from the index eGFR), or kidney failure. ANALYTICAL APPROACH:For each of the 4 cohorts, incidence rates and event-specific cumulative incidence functions at 1 year from cohort entry were estimated. RESULTS:The incidence rates of CKD G4 decreased as algorithms became more stringent, from 190.7 (single test) to 79.9 (rigorous sustained) per 100,000 person-years. The 2 cohorts based on sustained reductions in eGFR were of comparable size and 1-year event-specific probabilities. The 2 cohorts based on a single test and a 2-test sequence were larger and experienced higher probabilities of eGFR improvement. LIMITATIONS:A short follow-up period of 1 year and a predominantly White population. CONCLUSIONS:The use of more stringent algorithms for defining CKD G4 results in substantially lower estimates of disease incidence, the identification of a group with a lower probability of eGFR improvement, and a higher risk of kidney failure. These findings can inform implementation decisions of disease definitions in clinical reporting systems and research studies. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY:Although guidelines recommend>3 months to define chronic kidney disease (CKD), the methods for defining specific stages, particularly G4 (eGFR 15-29mL/min/1.73m2) when referral to nephrology services is recommended, have been implemented differently across studies and surveillance programs. We studied differences in incidence and prognosis of CKD G4 cohorts identified by 4 algorithms using administrative and outpatient laboratory databases in Alberta, Canada. We found that, compared with a single-test definition, more stringent definitions resulted in a lower disease incidence and identified a group with worse short-term kidney outcomes. These findings highlight the impact of the choice of algorithm used to define CKD G4 on disease burden estimates at the population level, on individual prognosis, and on treatment/referral decisions.