Analysis of wastewater from 2013 to 2021 detected a recent increase in nicotine use in Queensland, Australia

Previous wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) studies have reported decreasing trends of nicotine and tobacco use in Australia before 2017, but there is concern that increasing illicit use of nicotine in vaping products and illicit tobacco could reverse this progress. This study aimed to assess temporal trends of nicotine consumption and specifically tobacco consumption via wastewater analysis in a population in Australia between 2013 and 2021. One week of daily wastewater samples were analyzed every two months from February 2013 to December 2021 in a regional city serving similar to 100,000 people. A total of 340 daily samples were analyzed for anabasine (tobacco specific biomarker) and nicotine metabolites, cotinine and hydroxycotinine, using direct injection method by liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. Daily consumption estimates were calculated from daily flow data, population estimates and previously reported excretion factors. Linear spline regression was performed to identify periods when significant change of slopes occurred and to evaluate the temporal trends. Tobacco use monitored using anabasine as a biomarker, showed a decreasing trend over the whole period with a higher rate of decrease during the first two years (2013-2014, 21 % decrease) compared to the later 7 years (2015-2021, 10 % decrease). Nicotine use, monitored using cotinine and hydroxycotinine, showed a downward trend between 2013 and 2018 (2013-2014: 18 % decrease, p < 0.05; 2015-2016: 6 % increase, p = 0.48; Feb-Dec 2017: 15 % decrease, p = 0.39) followed by a significant increase from 2018 to 2021 (40 % increase, p < 0.001). This finding suggests the increasing use of non-tobacco nicotine-based products. Additionally, the tobacco use estimate by wastewater analysis was higher than the tobacco sales data, which suggests the use of illicit tobacco in the catchment.