Mechanistic Modeling of the Variability of Methane Emissions from an Artificial Reservoir

The mechanistic model LAKE2.3 was tested for its capability to predict of methane (CH4) emissions from reservoirs. Estimates of CH4 emissions from the Mozhaysk reservoir (Moscow region) provided by the model showed good agreement with instrumental in situ observations for several parameters of the water ecosystem. The average CH4 flux calculated by the model is 37.7 mgC-CH4 m-2 day-1, while according to observations, it is 34.4 mgC-CH4 m-2 day-1. Ebullition makes the largest contribution to the emissions from reservoirs (up to 95%) due to low methane solubility in water and the high oxidation rate of diffusive methane flux. During the heating period, an increase in methane emission is observed both in the model and empirical data, with a maximum before the onset of the autumn overturn. An effective parameter for calibrating the diffusive methane flux in the model is the potential rate of methane oxidation. For ebullition flux, it is the parameter q10 (an empirical parameter determining the relationship between methane generation and temperature) because methane production in bottom sediments is the most important. The results of this research can be used to develop mechanistic models and provide a necessary step toward regional and global simulations of lacustrine methane emission using LAKE2.3.