An Offer You Cannot Refuse: Plea Offer Size Affects Innocent but Not Guilty Defendants' Perceptions of Voluntariness

Objective: We examined whether various plea outcomes-including sentence reduction size (smaller, larger), type (traditional guilty plea, Alford plea), and frame (plea discount, trial penalty)-differentially affected innocent and guilty defendants' perceptions of the voluntariness of their guilty pleas. Hypotheses: We hypothesized (1) guilty defendants would rate guilty pleas as more voluntary than would innocent defendants; (2) defendants would rate larger sentence reductions either as more voluntary than smaller sentence reductions because they feel more fair or as less voluntary because they feel harder to reject; (3) defendants would rate guilty pleas as more voluntary when the plea offer was framed as a discount compared with a penalty; (4) penalty framing would differentially affect defendants offered large versus small sentence reductions; and (5) Alford pleas would differentially affect guilty versus innocent defendants. Method: Adults from Qualtrics Research Panels (N = 1,518; M-age = 59.22 years; 52% male; 83% White, non-Hispanic) played the role of a defendant in a simulated plea decision-making process. They were either innocent or guilty of the accusation. The prosecutor offered them a plea deal that varied in sentence reduction size (smaller, versus larger), type (traditional versus Alford plea), and frame (plea discount versus trial penalty). Participants then decided how to plead and rated the voluntariness of the decision-making process. Results: Plea outcomes affected innocent and guilty defendants in slightly different ways. Innocent and guilty defendants were less likely to plead guilty when the plea offer had a smaller compared with a larger sentence reduction. However, innocent defendants were less likely to plead guilty overall, required more prompting from their defense attorney to plead guilty, and rated the plea decision-making process as less voluntary than did guilty defendants. Innocent defendants also rated the plea decision-making process as less voluntary when offered a smaller compared with larger sentence reduction and when they were offered an Alford plea compared with a traditional guilty plea. Framing the plea offer as a discount or a penalty did not affect defendants' perceptions of voluntariness. Conclusion: Variations in plea outcomes affect defendants' perceptions of voluntariness. Moreover, at least some courts' definitions of voluntariness do not align with how laypeople-and thus, possible defendants-view the same construct.