Needs Analysis and Payback Models for Tractor Design Based on Field Data from Farmers in Sudan

The adoption of agricultural machinery in countries with a developing economy can have a significant impact on improving well-being and pro-poor growth. However, this requires farmers to buy into mechanized farming, which is more likely to happen if the machinery meets their needs. The objective of this paper is to identify deciding factors for traditional farmers to adopt machinery and identify design requirements. Payback models were developed based on these design requirements, willingness to pay, and expected returns. Thirty-six farmers in Sudan were interviewed throughout 2019-2021. Six of these farmers were provided tractors during 2020 and 2021. Differences in net-profits between the 30 control and 6 treatment farms during the mechanized farming seasons were used in the models for expected profits. There were no significant differences in tractor design preferences between the treatment and control groups. Two cost models were estimated using a 95% confidence interval: entire Delta profit (entire additional profit from mechanized farming above nonmechanized) and percentage of total profit (percentage of total net-profits willing to spend). For the average farm size in this study (44.39 acres) and a market available tractor that satisfied all farmer needs, payback was 3.92 years [2.34, 8.54] and 4.57 years [3.39, 6.38] for the models, respectively.