Forecasting the Future of Papaya in India: Predicting Area and Production Through Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Papaya, a tropical fruit known for its delectable taste and numerous health benefits, has gained popularity worldwide. India stands as one of the largest papaya producers globally. The present investigation focuses on studying the trends in papaya’s sustainable production in India, utilizing the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. Yearly data from 1950 to 2020 were used for stochastic trend estimation. Through a comprehensive evaluation of various goodness-of-fit standards, the most appropriate ARIMA model was selected to capture the trends in the area and production of papaya. Forecasting for the period of 10 years from 2021 to 2030 was performed, projecting the values for area under cultivation and production of papaya to reach 1538 hectares and 6,384,220 metric tons, respectively, by 2030. This study holds significance in defining the potential demand gap between the area and production for papaya in the future.