The increasing burden of asthma acute care in Singapore: an update on 15-year population-level evidence

In Singapore, there is currently scarce population-based research informing the recent trends of asthma-related healthcare burdens. In this study, we investigated the past 25-year trends of asthma-related hospitalisations, emergency department (ED) visits and deaths in Singapore and projected the future burdens from 2023 to 2040. We acquired annually-measured data from the Singapore Ministry of Health Clinical and National Disease Registry, containing 25-year asthma-related hospitalisation and death rates as well as 15-year ED visit rates. We conducted change-point analysis and generalised linear modelling to identify time intervals with stable trends and estimate asthma-related healthcare utilisation and mortality rates. To project future asthma-related burdens, we developed a probabilistic model which combined projections of future population size with the estimated rate outcomes from the last stable period. Our results show that the asthma hospitalisation rate in Singapore had remained at approximately 80 episodes per 100,000 from 2003 to 2019 and are likely to grow by 1.7