Electric Vehicle Charging Load Forecasting Model Considering Users’ Travel Rules

The proportion of EV in total number of motor vehicles in China has increased rapidly. Under this background, it is of great significance to predict the EV charging load reasonably and accurately. By studying the travel rules of car used by personal objective, the EV charging load prediction is carried out. According to the user 's travel statistics, travel laws of EV are analyzed by the combination of user travel chain and Markov process (MP). Moreover, the charging load forecasting model is established under the two conditions which including EV charging at home and EV charging on the way. Finally, the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method which used widely is adopted to calculate the charging load. In addition to this, the EV charging load distribution at different times and different regions is obtained. The simulation results in the software show that the established forecasting model can make accurate and reasonable predictions of charging loads for a large number of randomly dispersed electric private car.