Spatial distribution prediction of soil heavy metals based on sparse sampling and multi-source environmental data

Predicting the precise spatial distribution of heavy metals in soil is crucial, especially in the fields of environmental management and remediation. However, achieving accurate spatial predictions of soil heavy metals becomes quite challenging when the number of soil sampling points is relatively limited. To address this challenge, this study proposes a hybrid approach, namely, Light Gradient Boosting Machine plus Ordinary Kriging (LGBK), for predicting the spatial distribution of soil heavy metals. A total of 137 soil samples were collected from the Shengli Coal-mine Base in Inner Mongolia, China, and their heavy metal concentrations were measured. Leveraging environmental covariates and soil heavy metal data, we constructed the predictive model. Experimental results demonstrate that, in comparison to traditional models, LGBK exhibits superior predictive performance. For copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), chromium (Cr), and arsenic (As), the coefficients of determination (R2) from the cross-validation results are 0.65, 0.52, 0.57, and 0.63, respectively. Moreover, the LGBK model excels in capturing intricate spatial features in heavy metal distribution. It accurately forecasts trends in heavy metal distribution that closely align with actual measurements. Environmental Implication: This study introduces a novel method, LGBK, for predicting the spatial distribution of soil heavy metals. This method yields higher-precision predictions even with a limited number of sampling points. Furthermore, the study analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of Cu, Zn, Cr, and As in the grassland coal-mine base, along with the key environmental factors influencing their spatial distribution. This research holds significant importance for the environmental regulation and remediation of heavy metal pollution.