Baby Boom or Baby Bust After the COVID-19 Onset in the United States? Evidence from an ARIMA Time-Series Analysis

Despite some recent attempts, how fertility changed during the COVID-19 pandemic has not been adequately investigated. Using monthly live birth data from 1969 to 2021 and an ARIMA time-series approach, this study examines the fertility pattern in the United States during the pandemic. Results show that there was an initial baby bust in December 2020, January 2021, and February 2021, immediately after a full gestation period following the COVID-19 onset in the United States. However, it was soon replaced by a baby boom starting in April 2021. Since then, a fertility rebound occurred in the middle period of the pandemic until the end of our observation of December 2021. From December 2020 to December 2021, around 2% of total live births were estimated to be associated with the COVID-19 baby boom.