Regional source rock thermal stress modeling and map-based charge access modeling of the Port Isabel passive margin foldbelt, northwestern Gulf of Mexico

The Port Isabel passive margin foldbelt covers 17,000 km2 of the northwestern deepwater U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Seven oil exploration wells have been drilled in the area from 1996 to 2007, yielding a single uncommercial gas discovery. The 5-7 km thick Oligo-Miocene section prevents drilling from penetrating the underlying Paleogene and Mesozoic source rocks. Accommodation space for the Oligo-Miocene section is created by the collapse of a paleo-salt wall, leading to linked fault systems in the upper decollement to the east. We use 13 exploration wells to construct 1D and map-based 2D basin models to investigate the burial and thermal history of three inferred source rock horizons (Paleogene, Turonian, and Tithonian). We interpret a 2D seismic data grid tied to four wells to constrain stratigraphic depths and thicknesses of the younger and shallower Wilcox source rock horizons, and the Jurassic and Cretaceous source rock horizons. Our results indicate that vitrinite reflectance is a proxy for the thermal stress levels reached by the source rocks as supported by maps of hydrocarbon charge access. We conclude that all three source rock intervals have reached varying degrees of maturity, expelled hydrocarbons in late Paleogene to mid-Neogene, and likely continue expelling hydrocarbons to the present-day at a reduced rate. The deposition of the Oligocene and Middle Miocene sedimentary section has buried the underlying source intervals and likely brought them into the gas/condensate window in the present-day. Our mapping of the extensive seismic reflection grid reveals four-way structural closures, three-way stratigraphic traps, and salt truncation structures associated with amplitude anomalies which may support our predictions for maturity in the underlying source rocks. Our thermal stress maps predict that the modeled source rocks are mature and our charge access models for the available wells constrain migration patterns, although the timing of the early hydrocarbon charge and late trap formation remain significant risk factors.