China’s Methane Mitigation Potential: An Assessment of Costs and Uncertainties through 2060

China, the world’s largest methane emitter, is increasingly focused on methane mitigation in support of its climate goals, but gaps exist in the understanding of key methane sources as well as mitigation opportunities and their associated uncertainties. We use a bottom-up modeling approach with updated methane emission projections and abatement cost analysis to account for additional sources, uncertainties, and mitigation measures in China’s energy and agricultural sectors. Our results underscore the significant cost-effective potential for reducing methane emissions in China by 2030, with 660 MtCO2e possible with average abatement costs of US$6.40/tCO2e. Most of this potential exists in the energy sector, particularly coal mining, but greater potential will shift towards agriculture by 2060. Aquaculture and biochar applications in rice cultivation have net economic benefits but need greater support for deployment, while new mitigation measures will be needed for remaining emissions from enteric fermentation, rice cultivation, and wastewater.