Analysis of the Effects of Temperature Variation on Fish Catch Along the Colombian Pacific Coast: A Stochastic Model

Abstract Climatic factors affect biotic and abiotic elements that impact the abundance and distribution of fish species, particularly in the areas where they inhabit. In this article, we propose a stochastic model incorporating stochastic differential equations to analyze the behavior, over time, between the observed changes in sea surface temperature and its relationship with the abundance of one of the Mahi Mahi fish on a specific area of the Colombian Pacific coast. We estimate the proposed model parameters, sea surface temperature values, species stock, and species catch under study between the years 2000-2012 using the maximum likelihood and the Euler-Maruyama method. Using real data, we illustrate the proposed model’s numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis.