Middle-aged forests in the Eastern US have significant climate mitigation potential

Middle-aged forests in the Eastern U.S. are broadly defined to consist of forests between the regeneration phase following harvest or disturbance, and an older phase with forests composed of large trees, complex structure, and increasing natural mortality. Study objectives were to develop new carbon accumulation curves based on recent inventory data that represent the actual growth rates of forests as they advance beyond middle age; quantify the projected carbon sink from reducing or increasing harvest of middle-aged forests; and disseminate credible estimates of future carbon stocks in ecosystems and harvested wood products to support policies designed to enhance the role of forests in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it securely. We found that middle-aged Eastern U.S. forests could continue to accumulate carbon for many decades or several centuries in the absence of harvesting, with relatively low risk of natural disturbances. Compared with a recent study that estimated a potential increase in biomass of only 22%, and some analyses that anticipate significant increases in risks from natural disturbances, our results indicate a potential increase of about 100% over current biomass stocks by 2100. Temperate Continental forests have greater potential to increase carbon stock over longer time periods than Subtropical Humid forests. Results from scenario analyses showed that in the near term of 20-40 years, reducing harvest will yield the greatest reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions compared with business as usual. Under an extreme "no-harvest" scenario, C sequestration could increase by about 20 TgC yr(-1) in Temperate Continental forests by 2050, and by about 30 TgC yr(-1) in Subtropical Humid forests over the same time period. In contrast, a scenario of tripling harvest would increase C emissions by 30 and 60 TgC yr(-1) in the Temperate Continental and Subtropical Humid ecozones by 2050, respectively. In the longer term of 80 or so years, all scenarios and "business as usual" converge toward similar impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, nearing neutrality in the Subtropical Humid ecozone but separated by about 30 TgC yr(-1) in the Temperate Continental ecozone. Our estimated annual emission reduction from stopping harvest over the 73 million ha of middle-aged forests amounts to 117 Mg CO2 per year in 2050, equivalent to about 7% of the emissions from using fossil energy in the two ecozones. Increasing harvest would have the opposite effect of increasing emissions by a similar magnitude in 2050. How middle-aged forests in the Eastern U.S. are managed can clearly affect their contribution to achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 and beyond.