Temporal and spatial evolution of ecosystem services value in Hefei city based on land use change, and multi-scenario prediction

Abstract Ecosystem service value (ESV) is an important index to measure regional ecological well-being, and its spatio-temporal evolution is of great reference significance for promoting the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. Based on the change law of land use and ecosystem service value in Hefei City from 2000 to 2020, this paper uses FLUS model and ecosystem service value (ESV) evaluation method to simulate the ecosystem service value of Hefei City in 2040 under four scenarios of natural development, cropland protection, urban development and ecological protection, so as to explore the impact of future land use change on ecosystem service value. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the area of cropland in Hefei City continued to decrease, the area of construction land and grassland increased significantly, and the area of other land types changed little. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the total value of ESV in Hefei increased first and then decreased. The total value of ESV increased significantly from 2000 to 2010, and the total value of ESV decreased by 703.75 CNY billion from 2010 to 2020. (3) Under the multi-scenario simulation, the ESV values of Hefei City in 2040 under urban development and cropland protection have different degrees of loss, but the ESV under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios not only did not decrease but increased by CNY 1.5358 and CNY 8.0757 billion respectively. Among the four scenarios, the most ESV loss was the urban development scenario, with a total reduction of CNY 117.52 billion. The research results can provide a scientific basis for the optimization of land use structure and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for ecological protection and restoration in Hefei in the future.