Dissecting coral recovery: bleaching reduces reproductive output in Acropora millepora

Increasingly frequent and severe bleaching events driven by climate change are decreasing coral populations worldwide. Recovery of these populations relies on reproduction by the survivors of such events including local and upstream larval sources. Yet, corals that survive bleaching may be impaired by sublethal effects that suppress reproduction, reducing larval input to reefs, and consequently impeding recovery. We investigated the impact of the 2020 mass-bleaching event on Acropora millepora reproduction on inshore, turbid reefs in Woppaburra sea Country (the Keppel Islands), to improve our understanding of the effects of bleaching on coral populations. A. millepora experienced high bleaching incidence but low mortality across the island group during this event and thus constituted an ideal population to investigate potential sublethal effects on reproductive output. Six months after the heat wave, and just prior to spawning, we collected, decalcified, and dissected samples from 94 tagged A. millepora colonies with a known 2020 bleaching response, to investigate the relationships between stress severity and reproduction. Despite having regained their pigmentation, we detected a significant reduction in fecundity in colonies that had bleached severely. Considering the impact of the bleaching event on the coral population sampled (i.e., mortality, bleaching severity and colony size), coupled with reductions in fecundity, we estimated a total decrease in population-level reproductive output of 21