Partly Cloudy with a Chance of Mosquitoes: Developing a macroecological approach to forecasting mosquito populations and phenology under changing climates

Climate-induced shifts in mosquito phenology and population structure has important implications for the health of humans and wildlife. The timing and intensity of mosquito interactions with infected and susceptible hosts is a primary determinant of vector-borne disease. Like most ectotherms, rates of mosquito development are expected to change under warming climates. However, developing accurate predictions of mosquito phenology under climate change that can be used to inform management programs remains challenging despite an abundance of available data from long-term monitoring programs. Climate change may have variable effects on mosquito demography depending on the traits of individual species. Here, we review a suite of modeling approaches that could be applied to generate forecasts of mosquito activity under climate change and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. We argue that four primary life-history and physiological traits can be used to constrain models, and demonstrate how this prior information can be harnessed to develop forecasts of mosquito activity under changing climates.