Determinants of the capacity of dryland ecosystems to store soil carbon under altered fire regimes

Abstract Widespread changes in the intensity and frequency of fires across the globe are altering the terrestrial carbon (C) sink 1–4 . Although the changes in ecosystem C have been reasonably well quantified for plant biomass pools 5–7 , an understanding of the determinants of fire-driven changes in soil organic C (SOC) across broad environmental gradients remains unclear, especially in global drylands 3,4,7–9 . Here, we combined multiple datasets and original field sampling of fire manipulation experiments to evaluate where and why fire changes SOC the most, built a statistical model to estimate historical changes in SOC, and compared these estimates to simulations from ecosystem models. We found that drier ecosystems experienced larger relative changes in SOC than humid ecosystems—in some cases exceeding losses from plant biomass pools—primarily explained by high fire-driven declines in tree biomass inputs in dry ecosystems. Ecosystem models provided more mixed insight into potential SOC changes because many models underestimated the SOC changes in drier ecosystems. Upscaling our statistical model predicted that soils in 1.57 million km 2 savanna-grassland regions experiencing declines in burned area over the past ca. two decades may have 23% more SOC, equating to 1.78 PgC in topsoils. Consequently, ongoing declines in fire frequencies have likely created an extensive carbon sink in the soils of global drylands that may have been underestimated by ecosystem models.