Optimising global conservation, restoration, and agriculture for people and nature

Abstract The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework is a worldwide plan to urgently address and reverse biodiversity loss, intending to achieve a harmonious relationship between humanity and nature by 2050. This paper seeks to contribute to operationalising the framework, specifically concerning biodiversity conservation and nature's contributions to people. Using a global analytical approach, we identify optimised areas for conservation, restoration and agriculture, considering food production, urban expansion, population growth, and climate change projections. By formulating scenarios for increasing natural areas enabled by improvements in agricultural productivity and trade, and considering local and global constraints on restoration actions, we analyse potential outcomes for biodiversity and people. Our findings demonstrate that an optimised spatial allocation of land use could substantially mitigate projected negative impacts and even surpass the current situation, leading to significant socio-environmental gains. However, the best global scenarios for nature and people require integrated planning that considers mitigating climate change, reducing human pressure on natural habitats, increasing trade, and changing human behaviour. Aligning efforts to protect and restore nature with broader sustainability goals through coordinated and transformative action is central to implement the Global Biodiversity Framework and delivery of a more sustainable future.