How to explore the impact of the Main Functional-Oriented Zones Planning on land use conflicts: Take the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region as an example

Under the context of rapid urbanization, the problem of land use conflicts (LUC) has been highlighted, and the implementation of policies has become the main way to coordinate and manage LUC. However, previous studies have only confirmed the indirect effect of policy factors on LUC, and research on how to effectively detect their indirect effects is still insufficient. The study constructs a comprehensive LUC index based on land use characteristics to measure the intensity of LUC in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The town development level (TDL) under the Main Functional-Oriented Zones Planning (MFOZP) is used as an intermediate variable. Using a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the impact of TDL on LUC under the MFOZP, the effect of MFOZP on the evolution of LUC is analyzed in depth. The results show that (1) from 2010 to 2020, the LUC in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei changes slightly, and the conflict hierarchy is dominated by potentially out-of-control and basically out-of-control, with an average share of 23.63% and 31.48% respectively, and the LUC structure is in an imbalanced trend. Spatially, it is generally high in the south and low in the north, with the serious out-of-control areas concentrated in core cities such as Beijing and Tianjin. (2) In the context of MFOZP, the TDL in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei varies significantly. In the last decade, the overall layout is high in the east and low in the west. (3) The TDL based on MFOZP has a certain inhibitory effect on LUC. Among them, the ecological environment subsystem has a significant inhibitory effect on LUC, while the economic development, livability, and resource utilization subsystems have a positive effect on LUC. However, the positive effect tends to weaken. The study aims to provide a scientific basis and theoretical reference for LUC management and optimal land use pattern.