Characteristics of Water Vapor Transport for Extreme Summer Precipitation in the Eastern Southwest China and Its Impact Mechanism

To improve understanding of the characteristics of extreme summer rainfall and its water vapor transport in the eastern part of southwestern China (ESWC), this study analyzed data on daily precipitation from 118 meteorological stations in the ESWC from 1979 to 2020, as well as daily reanalysis data from ERA5 and daily reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR. The study employed polynomial fitting, correlation, regression, clustering, and mixed single-particle Lagrangian trajectory (HYSPLITv5.0) modeling methods to simulate extreme summer precipitation and its water vapor transport characteristics in the ESWC and its possible formation mechanism. The results show that: (1) The contribution rate of extreme precipitation in the ESWC from 1979 to 2020 varied significantly on the interannual time scale. When the number of extreme precipitation days is high (low), the contribution rate of extreme precipitation is also high (low), while the contribution rate of general precipitation (the percentage of the sum of general precipitation to the total summer precipitation of that year) is often low (high). (2) When extreme precipitation occurs in the ESWC, compared with general precipitation, the high-level potential vortices are stronger, and the cold air from higher latitude is more likely to move southward. Meanwhile, the amount of water vapor input to the region is significantly larger than that of general precipitation. (3) There are four channels of water vapor sources in the ESWC during the period of extreme precipitation: the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, the western Pacific, and the northwest. The contribution of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal is the highest. The number of extreme summer precipitation days in the ESWC is significantly negatively correlated with the water vapor budget of the eastern boundary and positively correlated with Indian Ocean Basin-Wide (IOBW) index in the previous winter. (4) When the winter SST is high in the IOBW mode, it can cause the western Pacific subtropical high and the South Asian high to be stronger and shifted southward in summer, resulting in an increase in the number of extreme precipitation days in the ESWC.