TGF-β score based on silico analysis can robustly predict prognosis and immunological characteristics in lower-grade glioma: the evidence from multicenter studies

Nowadays, mounting evidence shows that variations in TGF-β signaling pathway-related components influence tumor development. Current research has patents describing the use of anti-TGF-β antibodies and checkpoint inhibitors for the treatment of proliferative diseases. Importantly, TGF-β signaling pathway is significant for lower-grade glioma (LGG) to evade host immunity. Loss of particular tumor antigens and shutdown of professional antigen-presenting cell activity may render the anti-tumor response ineffective in LGG patients. However, the prognostic significance of TGF-β related genes in LGG is still unknown.We collected RNA-seq data from the GTEx database (normal cortical tissues), the Cancer Genome Atlas database (TCGA-LGG), and the Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas database (CGGA-693 and CGGA-325) for conducting our investigation.In addition, previous publications were explored for the 223 regulators of the TGF-β signaling pathway, and 30 regulators with abnormal expression in TCGA and GTEx database were identified. In order to identify hub prognostic regulators, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to screen from differentially expressed genes (DEGs). On the basis of 11 genes from LASSO-Cox regression analysis (NEDD8, CHRD, TGFBR1, TP53, BMP2, LRRC32, THBS2, ID1, NOG, TNF, and SERPINE1), TGF-β score was calculated. Multiple statistical approaches verified the predictive value of the TGF-β score for the training cohort and two external validation cohorts. Considering the importance of the TGF-β signaling pathway in immune regulation, we evaluated the prediction of the TGF-β score for immunological characteristics and the possible application of the immunotherapeutic response using six algorithms (TIMER, CIBERSORT, QUANTISEQ, MCP-counter, XCELL and EPIC) and three immunotherapy cohorts (GSE78820, Imvigor-210 and PRJEB23709). Notably, we compared our risk signature with the signature in ten publications in the meta-cohort (TCGA-LGG, CGGA-693 and CGGA-325), and the TGF-β score had the best predictive efficiency (C-index =0.812).In conclusion, our findings suggest that TGF-β signaling pathway-related signatures are prognostic biomarkers in LGG and provide a novel tool for tumor microenvironment (TME) assessment.