Ecological dynamics of moa extinctions reveal convergent refugia that today harbor flightless birds.

Abstract Human settlement of islands across the Pacific Ocean was followed by waves of faunal extinctions that occurred so rapidly that their dynamics are difficult to reconstruct in space and time. These extinctions included large, wingless birds endemic to New Zealand called moa. We reconstructed the range and extinction dynamics of six genetically distinct species of moa across New Zealand at a fine spatiotemporal resolution, using hundreds of thousands of process-explicit simulations of climate-human-moa interactions, which were validated against inferences of occurrence and demographic change from an extensive fossil record. This statistical-simulation analysis revealed important interspecific differences in the ecological and demographic attributes of moa that influenced the timing and pace of their geographic and demographic declines following colonization of New Zealand by Polynesians. Despite these interspecific differences in extinction dynamics, the spatial patterns of geographic range collapse of moa species were similar. The final populations of all moa species persisted in suboptimal habitats in cold, mountainous areas that were generally last and least impacted by people. These isolated refugia for the last populations of moa continue to serve as sanctuaries for New Zealand’s remaining flightless birds, providing novel insights for conserving endemic species in the face of current and future threats.