Increasing Fire Activity in African Tropical Forests is Associated with Land Use and Climate Change

Fires were historically rare in tropical forests of West and Central Africa, where dense vegetation, rapid decomposition, and high moisture limit available fuels. However, increasing heat and drought combined with forest degradation and fragmentation are making these areas more susceptible to wildfire. We evaluated historical patterns of MODIS active fires in African tropical forests from 2003-2021. Trends were mostly positive, particularly in the northeastern and southern Congo Basin, and were concentrated in areas with high deforestation. Year-to-year variation of fires was synchronized with increasing temperature and vapor pressure deficit. There was anomalously high fire activity across the region during the 2015-2016 El Niño. These results contrast sharply with the drier African woodlands and savannas, where fires have been steadily decreasing. Further attention to fires in African tropical forests is needed to understand their global impacts on carbon storage and their local implications for biodiversity and human livelihoods.